Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 10.239949 12.031781 13.999924 16.316087 18.960829 21.880030 25.339308
2025-01-05 7.347404 9.621570 12.355474 15.859460 20.203868 25.384092 31.996063
2025-01-12 5.744842 8.236915 11.464392 15.895991 21.759591 29.181722 39.205123
2025-01-19 4.633086 7.192641 10.728498 15.876645 23.068767 32.630930 46.148602
2025-01-26 4.085662 6.787960 10.730028 16.756219 25.558161 37.734477 55.587865
2025-02-02 3.610354 6.385264 10.639710 17.435301 27.761878 42.554793 64.945594
2025-02-09 3.250079 6.088221 10.641449 18.207548 30.117473 47.711627 75.092906
2025-02-16 2.796428 5.553131 10.182135 18.182633 31.220852 51.068309 82.797932
2025-02-23 2.331236 4.913456 9.454322 17.617334 31.385059 52.968729 88.388692
2025-03-02 1.928478 4.314113 8.705728 16.910726 31.217869 54.290592 93.111408
2025-03-09 1.691566 3.991166 8.399645 16.919374 32.211307 57.480439 100.914969
2025-03-16 1.490930 3.705505 8.121025 16.935480 33.197372 60.694179 108.914329
2025-03-23 1.310650 3.437090 7.850862 16.956293 34.225882 64.104521 117.554130
2025-03-30 1.095176 3.048895 7.288148 16.353264 34.068648 65.483789 122.888510
2025-04-06 0.964241 2.832022 7.047663 16.351351 35.013304 68.820664 131.735784
2025-04-13 0.848860 2.629647 6.808342 16.319622 35.886820 72.070596 140.598328
2025-04-20 0.812446 2.623973 7.005055 17.216788 38.635240 78.866309 156.075872
2025-04-27 0.764819 2.578915 7.104286 17.910953 41.025724 85.132637 170.914921
2025-05-04 0.726416 2.552217 7.242498 18.701181 43.663887 92.000845 187.177813
2025-05-11 0.646906 2.389636 7.028384 18.675564 44.609803 95.710104 197.807672
2025-05-18 0.550678 2.153831 6.595932 18.096819 44.336117 97.043315 204.058373
2025-05-25 0.461894 1.918501 6.126960 17.373360 43.679365 97.566833 208.774565
2025-06-01 0.413667 1.805816 5.968405 17.382211 44.622166 101.308010 219.823309